Friday, February 25, 2011

2011 Trade Deadline

1.  CHI trades James Johnson to TOR for a 2011 1st RD Pick (via MIA, currently #28) - He is extremely active defensively.  The problem is that he is just not a good offensive player.  I mean, really bad.  Perhaps he needs someone to set him up as Derrick Rose was often looking to create looks for himself and his teammates secondarily.

Year TEN+ TEN% Fair$ PER PER%
2010 80 -20 $2,365,965.39 10.4 -31
2011 72 -28 $2,279,865.62 8.9 -41




Personally, I think it was a good risk to take on Toronto's part.  Toronto really needs to cover for Bargnani, Calderon and DeRozan on the defensive end of the floor.  Amir Johnson and James Johnson help to mitigate that somewhat but it remains to be seen if Bargnani and DeRozan are even 1st or 2nd options to begin with (they both shoot a ton of jumpers.)  It will be interesting to see if J. Johnson can carve out a niche in Toronto as he is above average as a defensive disruptor and not much of a shooter.

However, Johnson is still under the 2400 MP threshold so improvement, despite his age, is still quite likely.

2.  MIN trades Kosta Koufus to DEN - It wasn't originally listed as part of the Carmelo Anthony to NYK trade but apparently Koufus was shipped from MIN to DEN.  It remains to be seen if Koufus can get some steady burn but there are a few things that are intriguing about him, in my mind, at least.

Age Year ORB% DRB% BLK% MP
19 2009 10.6 18.6 4.3 565
20 2010 11.2 19.4 1.9 172
21 2011 13.3 13.3 4.5 336
-- ---- 11.6 18.7 4.0 1073


When you combine his rebounding, shotblocking and age, he is, at worst, a developmental prospect.  There have only been ten players in the modern era who have combined 11.6 ORB%, 18.7 DRB% and 4.0 BLK% over there first 1000 MP (Vlade Divac, Shaquille O'Neal, Kendrick Perkins, Amir Johnson, Paul Millsap, DeAndre Jordan, Kosta Koufos, Greg Oden, Anthony Randolph and Serge Ibaka.)  It is difficult to claim that this is anything great but it is a nice depth move for DEN and, albeit minor, further puts the Carmelo trade more into DEN's favor, imo.

3.  UTA trades Deron Williams to NJN for Devin Harris, Derrick Favors, 2011 1st RD pick (currently #6) and 2012 1st RD pick (top-7 protected, via GSW) - Wow, this is potentially a very good move for both teams.  UTA got an all-star level PG, a potential all-star level PF-C and two lottery picks.  The NJN got a superstar player in his prime and paid for the right to do so.

Player TEN+ TEN% Fair$ PER PER%
Deron Williams 176 76 $23,292,505.63 22.1 47.3
Devin Harris 134 34 $13,336,690.58 17.9 19.3
Derrick Favors 83 -17 $2,786,022.14 12.8 -14.7


It remains to be seen how this will all work out in the wash but right now I think the deal is probably even with UTA having the chance to move way out ahead if (and that is a big IF) they hit on both of those draft picks and Favors, currently the youngest player in the league, lives up to his draft pedigree.

4.  SAC trades Carl Landry to NOH for Marcus Thornton and cash considerations. -  OK, before I get into the particulars of this deal, let me just say this stinks.  Not, hey, this was a lopsided trade or anything.  It smells to high heavens because, with Shinn out in New Orleans, the Hornets are owned by the 29 other teams in the NBA.  Which is fine.  What isn't fine is that those owners are being forced to compete with themselves.  It would be one thing for NOH to be receiving cash considerations to defray operating costs or whatever.  It is entirely different when the David Stern express decides to pay out from the league coffers.  Rant done.

As far as the players involved, Landry can score a bit above league average but his rebounding has fallen off and he just hasn't been very good since his first two seasons in the league.  Thornton is younger and arguably has greater impact, right now.

Player TEN+ TEN% Fair$ PER PER%
Marcus Thornton 81 -19 $3,228,897.82 14.0 -6.7
Carl Landry 77 -23 $3,425,101.40 15.0 0.0


This trade clearly goes to SAC, imo.  That SAC wasn't the one paying is beyond me.  I guess the NBA can argue that they were paying part of Thornton's salary for next season but they gave up the better player and the cash.  Hard to see how this really benefits NOH.

5.  BOS trades Kendrick Perkins and Nate Robinson to OKC for Jeff Green, Nenad Krstic, 2012 1st RD pick (via OKC, lesser of LAC's or MIN's 2012 1st RD pick) - I am a bit torn on this.  Personally, Kendrick Perkins is my favorite player in the league.  That being said, the move does benefit BOS in a couple different ways.

First, BOS gets a likely lottery pick in 2012.  That is a pretty good return for a starter-level, defensive big man on an expiring contract that is combined with a salary dump.  I just don't know if it is a good enough return for a top-3 post defender.

Secondly, Danny Ainge was able to dump Nate Robinson's salary for 2012 and receive cash.  As much as Ainge might want to spin this move as an improvement for 2011, I just don't see it.  This was a cost-cutting move, plain and simple.  Perhaps Ainge should have addressed the need for a back-up SF to Pierce in the off-season instead of blowing his MLE load on Jermaine O'Neal and his perpetual ouchies.


Player TEN+ TEN% Fair$ PER PER%
Kendrick Perkins 99 -1 $5,989,051.49 10.2 -32.0
Nate Robinson 74 -26 $2,998,571.90 10.2 -32.0
Jeff Green 79 -21 $3,259,953.47 13.0 -13.3
Nenad Krstic 70 -30 $2,445,899.60 12.6 -16.0


This deal was clearly a slam dunk for Sam Presti, imo.  He addressed a glaring need on his roster and was actually able to do so by jettisoning two role players who put up numbers based mostly on minutes and opportunity.  The deal could swing back towards BOS's favor if Ainge can acquire real talent with the 2012 1st RD pick and Jeff Green can be re-signed on the cheap.  Well, that and Green proves that he is anything more than a rotational level player who isn't a by-product of minutes and opportunity.

6.  BOS trades Luke Harangody and Semih Erden to CLE for 2013 2nd RD pick (via MIN) - Two rookies for what will likely amount to a top-40 pick.  This move makes sense for BOS but I really don't see how it helps CLE all that much.

Player TEN+ TEN% Fair$ PER PER%
Semih Erden 70 -30 $1,963,687.46 10.7 -28.7
Luke Harangody 58 -42 $1,262,623.99 8.6 -42.7


I guess CLE thinks there is untapped potential here and both are on non-guaranteed minimum contracts.  It really helps BOS in that not only do they convert two late 2nd RD picks into a likely top-10 2nd RD pick but they also clear roster space for the signing of any potential buyouts.

7.  BOS trades Marquis Daniels and cash considerations to SAC for 2017 2nd RD pick (top-55 protected) - This move clears the way for more reinforcements via buyouts for BOS.  This is the third time now that BOS and SAC have done this type of deal.

No real winner or loser here.  Each team met their needs.  BOS cleared roster space and cut their cap number whilst SAC made a little bit of profit for taking on the player.

8.  CHA trades Gerald Wallace to POR for Joel Pryzbilla, Dante Cunningham, Sean Marks, cash considerations, 2011 1st RD pick (via POR, NOH top-7 protected, currently #21) and 2013 1st RD pick (top-12 protected 2013-2015, unprotected 2016) - Yes, Gerald Wallace is a dynamic defensive player and a heck of a rebounder.  Still, giving up two 1st RD picks for a player who is merely starter level seems like a bit of an overpay to me.

Player TEN+ TEN% Fair$ PER PER%
Gerald Wallace 99 -1 $6,090,189.67 15.1 0.7
Joel Pryzbilla 72 -28 $1,631,881.86 7.1 -52.7
Dante Cunningham 63 -37 $1,834,518.22 9.5 -36.7
Sean Marks 38 -62 $430,577.03 4.9 -67.3

Charlotte wins this trade, imo.  I really don't see Wallace changing the dynamics of that team except by taking minutes and opportunity away from more offensively talented teammates.  Furthermore, Nicolas Batum is roughly his equal, right now.  Never mind the fact that Wallace has only played more than 70 games in a season four times out of his ten years in the NBA.

9.  CLE trades Mo Williams and Jamario Moon to LAC for Baron Davis and 2011 1st RD pick (currently #7) - CLE won this trade hands down.  Yes, they took on the player with the greater salary but he is also the better player.  That they got an unprotected 1st RD pick that is currently mid-lottery is fan-feckin-tastic.  Check out the last three seasons combined for both Baron and Mo.

Player TEN+ Fair$
Baron Davis 137 $12,730,679.66
Mo Williams 116 $6,699,333.19


I really can't see the downside of this trade from CLE's perspective.  I guess LAC didn't want Baron dominating the ball but at least he is somewhat active.  I have a feeling that LAC is going to regret this deal.

10.  HOU trades Aaron Brooks for Goran Dragic and 2011 1st RD pick (top-14 protected, currently 15th, if not conveyed, 1st RD pick via ORL, currently 23rd will be conveyed instead) - What the heck?  How in the world did HOU manage to swap players of equal impact and still come out with a likely top-25 pick?

Player TEN+ TEN% Fair$ PER PER%
Aaron Brooks 105 5 $6,039,121.96 11.8 -21.3
Goran Dragic 106 6 $5,785,332.94 11.3 -24.7


Brooks had fallen behind Kyle Lowry on the depth chart (rightfully so) and has struggled with his shot coming off the bench.  Dragic has put up similar efficiencies with more defensive impact and could well be a diamond in the rough.  Once you factor in the the draft pick, this is a clear win for Houston.

11.  HOU trades Shane Battier and Ishmael Smith to MEM for Hasheem Thabeet, DeMarre Carroll and a future 1st RD pick (MEM owes MIN 2011 1st.  If that conveys, top-14 protected in 2011, HOU will get MEM 2013 1st, lottery protected-- I think.) - Somehow, someway, Daryl Morey traded an expiring contract and an undrafted rookie free agent for two former 1st RD picks and a future 1st RD pick.

I think this trade works out for both teams, actually.  MEM wants to make a playoff push and Battier's defense, three point shooting and veteran leadership will go a long way towards that.  They also were able to shed salary.

From HOU's perspective, they were able to acquire big man and wing depth while also getting something for expiring contracts.  They also opened up playing time for Chase Budinger.  It will be interesting to see if Carroll and Thabeet to can live up to the pre-draft expectations.

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