Opposition Starters

I did a study a while back where I attempted to tackle the problem of bench vs starters. Without getting too in-depth, the average player will see the following increases against Joe Dink, average bench player:


11.4% more Free Throw Attempts
2.7% more Rebounds
3.3% more Steals
12.9% more Blocks
16.0% more Personal Fouls
0.7% more Points Scored
0.6% increase to True Shooting Percentage

Now, with that being said, players also lose against bench players, as well. On average, it reflects like this:

-1.1% less Field Goal Attempts
-9.4% less Assists
-0.4% less Turnovers


I made a quick and dirty, back of the envelope equation to figure approximate strength of opposition. I call it "Opp Starters" and it closely mirrors the results from actual play-by-play data (not perfect but pretty close.)

Essentially, if you take a hypothetical 25 MPG player, this is how his units opposing line-ups will shake out:

Games | Starts | MPG | Avg Starters Faced
82 | 82 | 25 | 4.03
82 | 41 | 25 | 3.35
82 | 00 | 25 | 2.67

It can really help to put a player's performance into context.  I use it as an adjustment in my TEN+ rating, as well.