TEN+, A Closer Look

TEN+ is a professional basketball rating system that is similar in concept to OPS+
or ERA+ in baseball. Therefore, a "100" rating is the baseline for a starter-level
player. I have attempted to incorporate defense by using regression analysis of
on-court and off-court data. It is a pace-adjusted, per-minute evaluation tool.
TEN+, at the team level, has consistently outperformed pyth^14 and pyth^16 in
determining expected winning percentage.    

190+ MVP Candidate

150+ Superstar

130+ All-Star

100+ Starter

75+ Rotation

60+ Deep Bench

59- Spot minutes/Freely Available Talent

In action, TEN+ would be used much the same way that PER is cited when discussing
a player's performance value. As an example, in the 2010 season, Golden State's
Anthony Morrow put up a TEN+ of 86.

What does that mean?

To begin with, it means that he is a rotation level player who, when needed, could
spot-start. In fact, with some adjustments, it appears that he might be able to
fill a larger role. Of course, as with all counting stats, minutes, teammates,
opportunity and style of play have a big influence on a player's performance. Even
if his role is to come off the bench, he would likely be well-suited to it and shine
doing it.

Secondly, what did PER think of his performance? A 15.0 in PER is considered an
average player. Morrow's 14.0 PER in 2010 rates his performance at approximately
6.7% below average. TEN+ really dislikes his defense/intangibles and rates him at
14% below average.

As with any type of system that attempts to quantify performance into a single
number, there are going to be issues of quantity vs quality. Is it more valuable
to absorb possessions, and thereby avoid turnovers over a large amount of scoring
opportunities, at lower efficiency than it is to be highly-efficient over a smaller
amount of touches?

I come from the school of thought that a player who can create shots, both by the
dribble drive and via the assist, and avoid turnovers in the process is the most
valuable offensively. So, some people might think that those players are over-
valued by TEN+.

Others may deem that players who continue possessions via the offensive rebound are
overvalued. Or players who accumulate blocks and steals without fouling. Or who
positively impact both the offensive and defensive efficiencies of his teammates
while he is on the floor.

One thing I was sure I wanted to include in TEN+ was a defensive adjustment. Sure,
being offensively talented will get you paid but defense wins games and rebounding
wins championships. Defensive dogs should be given the same treatment that offensive
stiffs get, imo.

I believe that if you are going to attempt to rate performance, everyone needs to
be measured with the same stick. It may be difficult to measure defense but I
think we should at least make the attempt. When you are watching a game and see Al
Jefferson providing perimeter-to-tin, uninterrupted service (with a complimentary
lay-up line for teams that call now!), just remember that the more minutes he plays,
the more difficult it is to cover-up for his defense. It is the same reason it is
difficult to play Amir Johnson for long periods of time if not paired with offensively
talented teammates.